HorizonWatching

Cloud Computing Is Enabling The Next Phase Of The Internet Evolution

Carlota Perez wrote a book titled “Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital” (2002) that is a real interesting read.  Perez says that there have been five historical waves of economic and social transformation in the developed economies of the world. Each of these waves have what she calls an Installation phase followed by a crash of some sort and then a Deployment period. 

Perez says that our global economy has now entered the deployment phase of the fifth technology investment cycle, which she says is the Age of Information and Telecommunications (see embedded picture).  Perez says that this will be a period of adjustment when novel business models will exploit the new IT infrastructure that is now being put in place that enable more porous, open, collaborative approaches that seek to leverage the economics and flexibility of global sourcing.  She expects enterprises of all sizes will employ technology to help them transform their business models, processes and operations.

As mentioned, Perez says we are entering this Deployment phase. As we do there are some key characteristics across our global economy that is impacting how this phase develops. The firms that will succeed are the firms that will embrace these characteristics and the change that is happening in order to innovate and leapfrog competition.

Important characteristics of our global economy includes:

• A level, global economic playing field presents new opportunities, challenges and competitive technologies
• New technologies, services and skills are emerging…and they are quickly being integrated into every aspect of business and everyday life
• The pace of change is dramatically compressing “windows of opportunity” for real competitive advantage.
• Billions of skilled people are entering the world’s economy, fundamentally transforming the mix of the global workforce
• The interconnected nature of our world’s economy means businesses must be prepared to respond to – and capitalize on – changes in real time, with unprecedented flexibility.

While all this is happening, we are moving into what I believe is the third stage of the Internet. Call it Web 3.0 or whatever you wish, but cloud computing is perhaps the most important technology.  In fact, I believe that cloud computing is the key enabling technology for this next technological wave and the next phase in the evolution of the Internet.

Back in the mid to late 1990s companies were just concerned with getting websites up so they could have a presence on the Internet. It was all about providing very basic information to the public. But soon the so called e-commerce trend arose and business was being conducted on the Internet. Then Web 2.0 came into play and all users realized that they could share their ideas, create content, and collaborate online.  We are now well into this next phase of the evolution where the enabling technologies will be cloud, analytics, mobile, video, and semantic capabilities.  This so called Web 3.0 phase will provide applications that are much more immersive, social, and collaborative in nature.  Combined that with an explosion of networked sensors and advanced predictive analytic and all the Smarter Planet initiatives will become a reality. 

But the most important enabler will be the combination of private and public cloud computing infrastructures that will be the ‘engine’ of the future Internet.

Linden Labs: What Will Second Life Look Like in 2020?

I started using Second Life in the fall of 2006.  I was a pretty heavy user in 2007 and some of 2008.  I was experimenting during that period to understand how businesses could use Second Life to help connect remote employees and improve collaboration capabilities of teams.  At some point in 2008 I came to the realization that Second Life and other virtual worlds could do this, but business and IT leaders were not ready to accept the technology.  In addition, mainstream users were not ready for the cultural and behavioral change necessary to adopt the technology.  So I basically stopped my experimenting in 2008. 

I do go back into Second Life every once in a while to visit and I continue to follow the overall trend of virtual worlds.

Today I visited the Second Life blog to see what’s up for 2010.  There’s a great (somewhat long) post from M Linden (Mark Kingdon, CEO, Linden Lab) from Jan 3, 2010 titled Happy New Year!  Looking Back...Looking Ahead that covers where Second Life has come from, what was accomplished in 2009 and what is planned for 2010.

What Will Second Life Look Like in 2020?  But what caught my eye in the post was a section where Linden looks ahead to 2020.  The view posted is, of course, biased towards Second Life…however, it does provide an interesting perspective on where virtual worlds are heading over the next decade.  Here’s a summary of M Linden’s thoughts on what Second Life might look like by 2020.

1. Everyone has an avatar. Avatars have the ability to travel across virtual worlds, maintaining their unique identity (and inventory) as they go.
2. Second Life is galactic.  Linden predicts a massive influx of new Residents allowing Second Life to grow 10x from 2009 levels.
3. SLHD blurs the distinction between real and virtual.  Get ready for Second Life in High Definition where we not only see and hear virtually, but we feel things and smell things.
4. We are able to explore the edge of possibility.  Innovations in Visualization, Display Technology, Augmented Reality, etc. will allow you to immerse yourself into virtual worlds in new ways.
5. The walls come down early in the second decade. New APIs make Second Life a natural, practical extension and enhancement of everyday life. 
6. The Second Life economy becomes meaningful among real world economies. The Second Life economy continues its high double-digit growth.
7. Second Life becomes a standard in business, education and government.  SL becomes a preferred collaboration, simulation and learning tool to connect with customers, suppliers and employees all over the world.

For all the detail, check out the post Happy New Year!  Looking Back...Looking Ahead.  For the user responses, Linden has set up a discussion forum “What do you envision for SL in 2010 and over the next decade?.  The discussion is very active as people weigh in on what is Second Life should be doing. 

For more detail on M Linden you can see M Linden’s Nov 2009 Interview with the BBC

Friday Gadget: Augmented Reality Business Card

As gaming technology continues to advance at a rapid pace, we will begin to see that gaming technology make its way into everyday applications.  Augmented reality is an emerging technology that I’ve been increasingly fascinated with as it will further blur the line between what's real and what is generated by computers by enhancing what we see, hear, feel and smell.  I fully expect future movie goers will be experiencing AR in local theatres.

So I was looking for an example of how AR technology could be applied in the business environment and found a neat video I’ll embed below.  In the video, you’ll see a cool augmented reality business card created by James Alliban. 

In the video James shows a business card with a distinctive pattern on it to a computer equipped with a cheap web camera.  Software on the computer automatically renders a simple 3D object (attached to the card as it moves around in 3D) and plays a short video about the person whose business card is shown.  A nice idea if you want to convey more information about yourself than can possible fit on a paper business card. 

AR Business Card from James Alliban on Vimeo.

If you know of other neat AR applications for business, please comment with a link....thanks!

14 Emerging Technologies on My Radar

Here's some technologies that will impact us in the future that I am keeping my eye on.  Some of these are around today but just haven’t hit prime time, others are in the works. 

1. Internet 3.0    The web will transform into a personal agent that basically tells us what we want to to know and when we want to know it.  Important enabling technologies will be wireless technology, sensors, location and semantic technologies. 
2. Enterprise Social Networks:  We are already seeing the impact of social networks on our personal lives, but they are just starting to make inroads into enterprises.  Social networking technology will have profound impacts on management systems within enterprises.  Corporations will turn to new innovative business models based off of crowdsourcing, social network analysis, prediction markets and user ratings. 
3. Virtual Worlds:    There is no doubt that virtual worlds need to get easier before they become more mainstream.  It has to be integrated with social software platforms and instant messaging.  Ease of use, visible presence, unified communications and personalization will make virtual worlds a reality. 
4. Nanotechnology....Already having an impact in a number of industries, nanotechnology will enable unprecedented levels of control with incredibly small parts...having all sorts of implications for future materials, hardware components, and devices.
5. User Interfaces:   We are so used to using the mouse and the keyboard as an input device.  I think we are in the early stages of totally new ways to interact with our electronic devices.  The short term focus will be on touch technologies.  After that, I expect advancements in gesture computing and speech technology.  Regarding display technology, I'll be looking for new displays that will offer 3D, be flexible and project over large areas. 
6. 3D printers:  3D printers will provide a way for businesses to rapidly prototype potential products.  The technique involves "printing" three-dimensional objects with plaster or resin.  Some are even predicting a mass market for 3D printers for consumers.
7. Robots:  Robots will increasingly make their way into the business and consumer markets.  The Roomba vacuum robot we have in our house does a great job.  Expect robots to be increasingly used for applications like military operations, lifting and rescue operations, security, healthcare delivery, human companionship and other mundane chores. 
8. Mobile Applications & Services.   There can be no question that mobile devices are important to the future of business.  The gold rush is on to develop enterprise-based mobile applications, services and cloud infrastructures, both public and private.   I expect a flood of new application services designed specifically for the business mobile user, including those incorporating location awareness, video, and social technologies.  In the future, your mobile device will contain your profile information and will mediate relationships across social networks, commercial transactions, security clearances, and any device with embedded intelligence.
9. Human augmentation:   Technology is increasingly playing an important part in healthcare.  My eyesight is just great thanks to that Lasik surgery I had 9 years ago.   On the horizon are advancements in implants, brain interfaces, genetic selection and nerve to prosthesis applications.  If you saw the movie IronMan last year, you have an idea of where all this is heading. 
10. Telepresence/Video Conferencing.   Telepresence and 3D video conferencing capability will eventually be common for enterprises, having a huge impact on corporate travel, workforce collaboration and productivity.  It will allow enterprises to form closer relationships with clients, partners, and clients.
11. Quantum Computing....Perhaps a little further out than a 15 year planning horizon, quantum computing will allow computers to perform calculations in seconds versus the hours it takes today.
12. Embedded Intelligence...Embedded intelligence will enable an increasing amount of communication with mobile devices, appliances, store shelves, vehicles, bridges, buildings, people, animals, and even plants.  Embedded technologies and solutions will allow enterprises to create a true sense and respond framework.  By extracting useful events and insights from this data, organizations can quickly respond to new opportunities and / or threats. 
13. Cloud Computing... The rise of data-intensive applications, virtualization, and mobile and networking technologies is driving adoption of cloud computing.  As sensors proliferate and the world becomes 'smarter', more computing power will be needed to keep up with all the transactions.
14. Cleantech... There is a growing focus on products and services that improve the efficiency of assets while reducing energy usage, waste, or pollution.  There are a number of emerging technologies in this area, including water management, solar energy, wind energy, biofuel green buildings, green IT, intelligent transportation systems, smart grid, and fuel cells.

There's more than just fourteen on my radar list, but these come to front of mind right now.

Eight Technologies on Gartner's Emerging Trend Radar Screen

Last week Gartner unveiled its emerging trends outlook for technologies at the Gartner Symposium/ITxpo in Orlando.  Unfortunately for me, my company's department does not have money to send me to these types of events.  Lucky for me, however, is I can usually find out about what was presented by surfing the many blogs that I do.  In this case, I found an article posted over at ZDNet's blog called Between the Lines. 

According to the Between the Lines blog post here, Jackie Fenn, an analyst at Gartner, presented a list of emerging technologies to watch...some of them are around today but just haven’t hit prime time.  I was personally interested in their list of emerging technologies that are more than 10 years off.   Here they are...

• The Real World Web:  Gartner is forecasting that today's web transforms into a personal agent that basically tells users what they need to know proactively.  Important enabling technologies will be wireless technology, sensors, location and semantic technologies. 
• Virtual worlds and social software:  Gartner believes that Virtual worlds need to get easier before they become more mainstream.  Integration with social software will be key and visible presence, open communications and personalization will make these technologies keepers. 
• User interface advancements:  Gartner believes there is a bunch of stuff in the labs yet to come out, but the focus will be towards touch technologies.  Look also for new displays that will offer 3D, be flexible and project over large areas. 
• Personal manufacturing and fabbing:   Gartner believes there is an emerging mass market for 3D printers not only for business, but for consumers. 
• Mobile robots:  Gartner believes robots will increasingly be used for lifting and rescue operations, healthcare and human companionship. 
• Human augmentation:   Look for technology to play an important part in implants, brain interfaces, genetic selection and nerve to prosthesis applications.  Think: bionic man and bionic woman. 
• Collective intelligence:  Gartner believes corporations will turn to new innovative business models based off of crowdsourcing, open source, prediction markets and user ratings.  . 
• Extreme meritocracy:   Gartner sees the day when performance metrics, based on peer reviews and feedback, will be available on any company and any person.

Read on each of these here.  Of these, I think the 3D printing and social software are the two technologies that will happen before the rest.  What do you think? 

Top 70 Most Influential Virtual World Industry Leaders

The following is an initial list I put together of the top 70 most influential people involved in shaping how Virtual Worlds will impact the future business Internet landscape.  I developed it by taking a look at who is writing about the industry, who is in the news, who is speaking at conferences, who is leading important industry initiatives, and CEOs of the leading companies. 

 

Why the number 70?  No real reason...I was working with a list of over 200 and this is as far as I could pare it down right now.

 

The list is sorted alphabetically as I have not attempted to come up with a sort by how influential these people are.

 

Have any updates for me?  Please post a comment.  I'd like to continue refining the list.

 

1.  Bridget C. Agabra, Project Manager, Metaverse Roadmap Project

 

2.  Janna Anderson, Dir. Imagining the Internet & Asst. Prof. of Commun., Pew Internet / Elon University

 

3.  Dr Richard Bartle, Visiting Professor in Computer Game Design, University of Essex, U.K

 

4.  John Bates, Evangelist, Entropia Universe

 

5.  Betsy Book, Director of Product Management, Makena Technologies

 

6.  Justin Bovington, CEO, Rivers Run Red

 

7.  Johann Brenner, Partner, Benchmark Capital

 

8.  Corey Bridges, Co-founder, Executive Producer, & Marketing Director, The Multiverse Network

 

9.  Nic Brisbourne, VC blogger (www.theequitykicker.com) & Partner, Esprit Capital

 

10.  Mike Butcher, Journalist/new media expert, www.MediaBites.com

 

11.  Jamais Cascio, Founder, Open The Future

 

12.  Edward Castronova, Author-Synthetic Worlds; Dir. of Grad Studies, Indiana University & Arden Institute

 

13.  Daniel Schiappa, GM, Strategy Entertainment and Devices Division, Microsoft

 

14.  Beth Coleman, Professor of New Media. MIT

 

15.  Giff Constable, GM. The Electric Sheep Company

 

16.  Aaron Delwiche, Co-founder, Metaversatility, Inc.

 

17.  Cory Doctorow, Novelist, Blogger, Technology Activist. www.craphound.com

 

18.  John Donham, VP Production, Areae Inc.

 

19.  Jeska Dzwigalski, Product and Community Wrangler.  Linden Lab

 

20.  Peter Edward, Director for Home Platform Group, Sony Computer Entertainment

 

21.  Sasha Frieze, Executive Conference Director, Virtual Worlds Forum Europe 2007

 

22.  Robert Gehorsam, President, Forterra Systems

 

23.  Guntram Graef, Co-Founder, Anshe Chung Studios, Ltd., China

 

24.  Joel Greenberg, VP, Marketing Innovation, The Electric Sheep Company

 

25.  Bill Gurley, Partner. Benchmark Capital

 

26.  Adrienne Haik, Co-Founder, Metaversatility, Inc.

 

27.  John Hanke, General Manager, Google Earth

 

28.  Will Harvey, Founder and CEO. IMVU

 

29.  Paul Hemp, Senior Editor, Harvard Business Review

 

30.  Ben Holmes, Principal, Index ventures

 

31.  Ian Hughes, Metaverse Evangelist, IBM

 

32.  Jochen Hummel, CEO, Metaversum

 

33.  Joi Ito , Blogger; CEO and Founder  Neoteny (also Board Member at ICANN)

 

34. Toshitaka Jiku, EVP and CTO, 3Di Inc.

 

35. Mitch Kapor, CEO, Kapor Enterprises

 

36.  Sandy Kearney, Global Director, 3D Internet and Virtual Business, IBM

 

37. Christopher Klaus, Founder and Chief Executive Officer, Kaneva

 

38.  Raph Koster, President, Areae, Inc.

 

39.  Aleks Krotoski, Technology Columnist, The Guardian

 

40.  Christian Lassonde, President, Millions of Us Inc.

 

41.  Stephen Lawler, General Manager of Virtual Earth, Microsoft

 

42.  Paul Ledak, VP of Development, Digital Convergence, IBM

 

43.  Mike Liebhold, Senior Researcher, Institute for the Future

 

44.  Richard Marks, Dir. of Special Projects, Creator -EyeToy camera interface, Sony CEA R&D

 

45.  Randal Moss, Manager of Futuring and Innovation Based Strategies, American Cancer Society

 

46.  Beth Noveck, Founder-State of Play Conf. & Assoc. Professor of Law, New York Law School

 

47.  Jerry Paffendorf, Research Director, Futurist in Residence, ASF,  Electric Sheep Company

 

48.  Colin J. Parris, Ph.D., VP, Digital Convergence, IBM Research

 

49.  Adam Pasick, Second Life Bureau Chief, Reuters

 

50.  Guy Piekarz, CEO, President and Co Founder, Unisfair

 

51.  Steve Prentice, Group Vice President & Chief of Research, Gartner

 

52.  Scott Raney, Venture Capitalist, Redpoint Ventures

 

53.  Christian Renaud, Chief Architect, Networked Virtual Environments, Cisco Technology Center

 

54.  Ren Reynolds, Consultant, philosopher and writer & Founder, Virtual Policy Network

 

55.  Ben Richardson, VP Business Development, Makena Technologies

 

56.  Philip Rosedale, Founder and CEO, Linden Lab

 

57.  Robert Scoble, Technical Evangelist, Microsoft

 

58.  Christopher V. Sherman, Executive Director, Virtual Worlds Management

 

59.  Jed Smith, Mgng Partner, Catamount Ventures

 

60.  Timo Soininen, Chief Executive Officer, Habbo

 

61.  Reuben Steiger, CEO, Millions of Us

 

62.  Alice Taylor, Vice President, Digital Content, BBC Worldwide Americas

 

63.  Sibley Verbeck, CEO, The Electric Sheep Company

 

64.  Mark Wallace, Journalist, Blogger, Co-Author - Only a Game, 2006, 3pointD.com

 

65.  Michael Wilson, CEO, Makena Technologies

 

66.  Susan Wu, Principal, Charles River Ventures

 

67.  Hui Xu, Founder & CEO, HiPiHi Co., Ltd

 

68.  Jeffrey B. Yapp, Executive VP, MTV Networks

 

69.  Nick Yee, Founder, Daedalus Project; Dept. of Communication, Stanford University

 

70.  Ethan Zuckerman, Fellow, Berkman Center for Internet & Society, Harvard University

The Conference Board Holds Its First 'Virtual' Meeting on Second Life, the 3-D Online Digital World

I am a member of the Conference Board through IBM and recently they announced an event that caught my eye.  On June 15, 2007, The Conference Board Council of Telecommunications Executives in cooperation with Columbia University's Business School Institute for Tele-Information will host a meeting onsite at Columbia University in New York City with part of this event being held within Second Life via the IBM SOA facility.   

As I have been experimenting holding business meetings in Second Life since last September, the meeting sounded very interesting to me.  So I signed up. 

There is little doubt in my mind that the future Internet and Intranets will be 3-D enabled.  These simulated and virtual environments provide the user with a very different and enriching experience they do not get from 2-D websites. 

Virtual worlds such as Second Life are emerging as a fast growing Internet-based environment that has attracted the interest of a wide range of participants.  Second Life participants range from entrepreneurs to large multinational enterprises that have established "virtual stores" online.  Companies experimenting in Second Life include: IBM, ABN-AMRO, Sears, Circuit City (CC), General Motors (GM), Toyota Motor (TM), Dell (DELL), Cisco Systems (CSCO), Sun Microsystems (SUNW), Reuters Group (RTRSY), Wal-Mart (WMT), Intel (INTC), American Express (AXP) and many others.

The Conference Board meeting sounds very interesting as there will be a virtual portion where those of us who will not be able to be in NY to attend the meeting in person can attend virtually.  I will most likely be attending only the virtual portion through my avatar (named Jett Chambers).

For more information on this upcoming meeting, go to http://www.conference-board.org/e/detail.cfm?pressid=1283&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=email&utm_content=us&utm_campaign=emailexpress