HorizonWatching

Jack Uldrich: Predictions for 2012

Jack Uldrich is a well known author, blogger, columnist, keynote speaker, and global futurist.  Two books of his I recommend are 1) Jump the Curve: 50 Essential Strategies to Help Your Company Stay Ahead of Emerging Technologies and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business.

Uldrich has released his list of predictions for 2012.  I like reading his list every year because his predictions are integrated into stories and potential scenarios that could very well happen.  The stories and scenarios bring the predictions to life and helps you imagine other uses for the predicted technology trend.

Here’s a summary of his list

1. Blackout Friday. Retailers will admit to using advanced facial recognition software.
2. Collegiate Guarantees.   University helps unemployed alumni with special offer.
3. Augmented Political Reality.  A mobile app to help voters match candidates to special interest groups
4. Potty “Gaming”.  A new game to help parents potty-train their toddlers.
5. Urban Crops.  A city will initiate a major focus on urban farming to feed it’s citizens.
6. Paparazzi Drones.    Advanced miniature robotic drones to be applied to the celebrity industry.
7. Virtual Grocery Stores.  Subway walls to become a smartphone enabled virtual grocery store..
8. Nano-Drugs.   Trial program launched to apply groundbreaking nanoscience technology to cancer treatment
9. Networked Traffic.    Social networking apps to reduce traffic congestion.
10. Phone Food Sensors.  New device attached to smartphones chemically analyzes food while shopping at grocery stores.

You can read the detail behind Uldrich’s list at his blog  http://jumpthecurve.net/health-care/futurist-jack-uldrichs-predictions-for-2012/

IDC Health Insights: 2012 Health Industry Predictions

Earlier this week, I attended the annual IDC Health Insights Predictions 2012:  Health conference call.  

This was a global predictions call that covered the entire Health Industry, including health payer, provider and life science sectors.  The team identify major global trends that will impact the has scheduled other prediction calls going into more detail on topics specific to payer, provider and life sciences.  There are also other calls coming up that focus on health industry related predictions in both Europe and Asia.   

Leading this conference call was the IDC Health Insights Group Vice President, Scott Lundstrom.  Also on the call were 8 other members of the IDC Health Insights analyst team

Summary

IDC says significant changes are transforming components of the Health Industry value chain driven by a focus on patient safety, cost containment, quality improvement, and regulatory compliance.  Key topics of importance to business leaders will be EMR and EHR for providers, connected health, healthcare industry reform, and the life sciences value chain. 

Overall, IDC list 5 major technology themes

1. Reform
2. Analytics and Big Data
3. Cloud
4. Mobile
5. Social

IDC is hot on themes 2-5 throughout all of its predictions calls.  

The IDC Health Insights Ten Predictions for 2012

The 2012 predictions list below was sourced from the conference call slides.

1. EHR. “The Majority of U.S. Providers Will Use an EHR by the End of 2012”.
2. ACOs. “Successful Accountable Care Organizations Will Emerge from Private or Public-Private Initiatives” 
3. Re-Branding for Care. “Health Plans Rebrand: Care is the New Core”
4. Integrated Strategies. “Integration of Payment, Clinical Performance and Outcomes”
5. Analytics for Pharma. “Pharma adds "Actionable" to Analytics in 2012”
6. Analytics for ACOs. “The Next Mountain for ACOs to Climb Will be the Development of an Enterprise Analytic Framework Including Clinical Analytics”
7. Outsourcing.  “Outsourcing Best Practices Shift From Vendor to Partner”
8. Mobile. “Bring Your Own Mobile Device Gains Popularity, But Security Risks Abound”
9. Communication Strategy. “Second-Generation Communication Strategies Emerge”
10. Social. “The Next Generation of Consumer Engagement will Leverage Consumers’ Social Graphs”

For More Information

• The IDC Health Insights main page is http://www.idc-hi.com/
• Conference Call Replay (registration required): IDC Health Insights Predictions 2012:  Health.   See the IDC Insights Predictions 2012 page for other Health Insights prediction calls coming up.
• Reports: IDC Health Insights Top 10 Predictions for Health Industry (not published yet). Also Asia/Pacific Healthcare 2012 Top 10 Predictions
• Press Release:  IDC Health Insights press releases
• Community:  The IDC Insights Community has blogs, videos, forums, resource library, events etc.
• IDC Health Insights Newsletter: www.idc-hi.com/newsletter
• The IDC 2012 Predictions portal is at http://www.idc.com/research/Predictions12/Main/index.jsp.  This page is being updated daily as new reports come out, webinars announced, etc.

IDC Manufacturing Insights: 10 Predictions for Manufacturing in 2012

I attended the IDC Manufacturing Insights Predictions 2012:  Manufacturing conference call today.   I enjoyed this call as IDC highlighted the key 2012 trends within the Manufacturing Industry.

This was a global predictions call and was focused broadly on manufacturing industry wide predictions.  The IDC Manufacturing Insights team has scheduled other prediction calls going into more detail on topics like Supply Chain and Product Lifecycle Management.  There are also other calls coming up that focus on manufacturing related predictions in both Europe and Asia.   

Leading this conference call was the IDC Manufacturing Insights team of Joe Barkai (Vice President), Simon Ellis (Practice Director), Kimberly Knickle (Practice Director), Pierfrancesco Manenti (Head – EMEA), and Bob Parker (Group Vice President)

Summary

In 2012, the industry could be characterized as having cautious optimism.  Manufacturing is recovering but business will never be the same.  IDC showed spending forecasts for all major sub-industries with manufacturing and all industries show growth with the consumer oriented industries showing the most growth. 

The Ten Predictions

The 2012 predictions list below was sourced from the conference call slides.

1. ‘Engaged’ Organizations. “Success in the intelligent economy will be achieved through “engaged” organizations”.
2. ‘Four Forces’. “IT organizations will make foundational investments in the “four forces” that deliver both IT productivity and business value”  (note:  IDC says the four forces are Mobility, Big Data, Cloud, and Social Business)
3. Supply Chain Alignment. “Manufacturers Focus on Clock-Speed Alignment across the Supply and Demand Sides of their Supply Chains”
4. IT Support of Supply Chain. “The Requirement for Speed and the Ubiquity of Information Creates a New Landscape for IT Support of the Supply Chain”
5. Lean Innovation. “Manufacturers Adopt Lean Innovation Throughout the Product Lifecycle”
6. Product Lifecycle Visibility. “Greater Visibility and Deeper Understanding of All Aspects of Product Lifecycle Enable Context for Innovation”
7. Factory of the Future: Capabilities.  “The Factory of the Future will be Driven by Capabilities to Fulfill Customer Demand Rather than Pure Production Capacity”
8. Factory of the Future: Operations. “The Factory of the Future will Require a New Approach to Operations Applications”
9. Culture of Learning. “Engaged Manufacturers Look Ahead by Creating a Culture of Learning”
10. Sustainability. “Manufacturers Shine Environmental Sustainability Spotlight on the Factory as a Means of Getting to the Product”

For More Information

• The IDC Manufacturing Insights main page is http://www.idc-mi.com/
• Conference Call Replay (registration required): IDC Manufacturing Insights Predictions 2012: Manufacturing.  See press release for other Manufacturing Insights prediction calls coming up.
• Reports: IDC Energy Insights Top 10 Predictions for Utilities Industry (not published yet)
• Press Release:  IDC Manufacturing Insights To Present Top 10 Predictions for 2012
• Community:  The IDC Insights Community has blogs, videos, forums, resource library, events etc.
• IDC Manufacturing Insights Newsletter: www.idc-mi.com/newsletter
• The IDC 2012 Predictions portal is at http://www.idc.com/research/Predictions12/Main/index.jsp.  This page is being updated daily as new reports come out, webinars announced, etc.

JWT: 10 Consumer Trends For 2012

A recent JWT press release 10 Trends That Will Shape Our World in 2012 caught my eye.  The press release announced the publication of JWT’s seventh annual forecast of key trends that will impact consumer decision making and purchase behavior.

This is a good annual list to take a look at for those in the B2C world.  Consumer behavior is shifting constantly and it’s important to understand why, how, and where those shifts are happening.

To research and develop it’s top ten list, JWT uses data gathered via quantitative surveys of consumers in the U.S. and U.K. as well as input from JWT employees, clients, and other influencers across a number of industries.

JWT’s Top Ten Trends:  Themes uncovered in the survey data include uncertainty about the economic future, the ongoing drumbeat of new technology in our lives, and and a new theme of shared responsibility with a focus on making better food purchase decisions.

Here’s my summary of the ten trends on JWT’s list…

1. Navigating the New Normal:  Continued economic conditions force brands to develop new entry points for cost-sensitive consumers.
2. Live a Little:  Overstressed consumers look to splurge once in a while or at least escape from the many worries of the day.
3. Generation Go:  Enabled by technology, twentysomethings grow up and transform themselves, with many of them starting their own business
4. The Rise of Shared Value:  Increasingly, some corporations are deciding that making a profit and being socially responsible can be achieved at the same time.
5. Food as the New Eco-Issue:  The environmental impact of our food choices will become a more prominent concern.
6. Marriage Optional:  Increasingly, women are taking an alternate life route, one that doesn’t include marriage as an essential checkpoint.
7. Reengineering Randomness:  Greater emphasis will be placed on reintroducing randomness, discovery, inspiration and different points of view into our worlds.
8. Screened Interactions:  Consumers are increasingly expecting to interact (touch, gesture, speech) with flat screens and surfaces
9. Celebrating Aging:  Medical and cultural advances help seniors redefine what it means to grow old.
10. Objectifying Objects:  Technology increasingly gets 1) embedded in all sorts of objects and 2) enables the creation of totally new products and services

For More Information

• JWT press release 10 Trends That Will Shape Our World in 2012
• The full report “10 Trends for 2012” report is available at http://jwtintelligencecatalog.com/10trendsfor2012.aspx
• An executive summary slide deck has been posted on Slideshare at http://www.slideshare.net/jwtintelligence/jwt-10-trends-for-2012-executive-summary

IDC Energy Insights Predictions for 2012 Utilities Industry

I recently attended IDC Energy Insights Predictions 2012:  Utilities conference call today.  I look forward to the IDC Insights series of conference calls every year as it helps me understand the critical issues and trends that impact Information Technology decisions within a particular industry. 

In this case, the predictions were focused on the Utilities industry with an emphasis on North American issues.  There are other calls coming up that focus on Europe and Asia.   

Leading the conference call was the IDC Energy Insights team of Jill Feblowitz, Jay Holman, Sam Jaffe, Usman Sindhu, Casey Talon and Marcus Torchia

Summary and Key Themes

IDC Energy Insights says in 2012, the industry is entering a ‘post stimulus’ period.  While funding has dried up, there are areas where investment spending is growing, such as Solar PV installations.   Other investment areas include Smart Grid, Smart Buildings, Electric Vehicles, and Energy Storage.

The 2012 predictions list below was sourced from the conference call slides.

1. Smart Meters. “Smart meters will peak in 2012, propelling demand response, but spending tempered for now”.
2. Smart Grids. “Distribution automation will lead smart grid control investments with 13% CAGR”
3. Smart Buildings. “Smart building technology investments will gain more traction with utilities”
4. Electric Vehicles. “120,000 plug-in electric vehicles will be sold in North America in 2012”
5. Lithium Batteries. “Lithium-Ion large format batteries will reach $600 per kWh by the end of the year”
6. Solar PV Installations. “Despite the 1603 Treasury Grant expiring in 2011, PV installations will grow by >25% in 2012”
7. Commercial PV. “>60 MW of commercial PV installations will incorporate micro-inverters or DC optimizers in 2012”
8. Security & Risk. “Security and risk will continue to grab decision maker’s attention, leading to increased budgets”
9. Big Data Analytics. “Utilities will invest in analytics in anticipation of big data”
10. IT Spending. “IT spending by North American utilities will increase by 4.5% % over the next four years”

For More Information

• The IDC 2012 Predictions portal is at http://www.idc.com/research/Predictions12/Main/index.jsp.  This page is being updated daily as new reports come out, webinars announced, etc.
• Conference Call Replay (registration required): IDC Energy Insights Predictions 2012: Utilities and IDC Energy Insights Predictions 2012: EMEA Utilities
• Reports:    IDC Energy Insights Top 10 Predictions for Utilities Industry
• Press Release:  IDC Energy Insights Top 10 Predictions for Utilities Industry
• Community:  The IDC Energy Insights Community has blogs, videos, forums, resource library, events etc. all designed for those interested in the Energy IT industry

IDC Government Insights: 2012 Technology Predictions and Trends

I attended IDC Government Insights Predictions 2012:  Government conference call today.  I look forward to the IDC series of conference calls every year as it helps me understand the critical issues and trends that impact Information Technology decisions.  

The conference call was led by IDC Vice President Thom Rubel, and IDC Research Directors Ruthbea Clarke, Shawn McCarthy, and Adelaide O'Brien 

Summary and Key Themes

IDC says that the Government spending on IT in the U.S. will reach $82B.  The majority of that is Federal, with spending at the Federal level split about evenly between DoD and Civilian initiatives.  IDC expects the majority of this spending will be allocated to improve decision-making, operational efficiency, and citizen services for 2012

Overall, IDC believes there are four overall themes to watch in Government spending for 2012:

1. Operational Efficiency:  Broader strategies are need to reduce operational costs
2. Mobility:  Better management and provision of services are required
3. Smart Government:  Improve the value of information and broaden service channels
4. Economic Sustainability:  Investing to improve quality of life and promote economic growth/competitiveness

Top Ten Predictions for 2012

The 2012 predictions lists are developed from IDC analysts, who draw upon their ongoing discussions with industry clients, vendors, and years of experience.  The list below was sourced from the conference call slides.

1. Cloud Computing.  “Up to 10% of States will have shared cloud hubs by the end of 2012, rapidly growing to 65% of the States by 2015”.
2. Social Media.  “The use of social media for U.S. Local, State, and Federal organizations will begin the move from experimental to systematic information dissemination and collection.”
3. Mobility.  “Mobility will become the number 1 IT governance issue and moves beyond device management to encompass broader business issues.”
4. DataCenters.  “Small datacenters in the U.S. Federal government will hit the endangered species list in 2012 and be reduced by 70% with State and Local governments following suit.”
5. Business Process Outsourcing.  “Over 20% of government IT and business process outsourcing requests for proposals will include service-level agreements tied to internal business and/or program outcomes.”
6. Smart Cities.  “The growing availability of intelligent technology solutions will accelerate global investment in smart city technologies to $40.9 billion in 2012.”
7. Service Level Agreements.   “Due to increased use of cloud computing, CIOs will spend up to 20% of their time in 2012 reviewing the terms and conditions of service-level agreements and mover toward standardization.”
8. Big Data.  “Governments will take small steps to satiate their big appetite for Big Data.”
9. Communication Networks.  “Foundational high-speed communications networks will finally hit critical mass.”
10. Smarter Government.  “Governments will start updating legacy systems and engage in cross-agency collaboration that will move them to a higher stage in smart government maturity.”

The last few minutes of the conference call was spent going over recommendations and guidance to those in governments and those at vendors who serve governments.

For More Information

• Conference Call Replay (registration required): IDC Government Insights Predictions 2012:  Government and  IDC Government Insights Predictions 2012:  EMEA Government 
• Reports:    Asia/Pacific Government Insights 2012 Top 10 Predictions and U.S. Government 2012 Top 10 Predictions, Document # GI231773
• Community:  The IDC Government Insights Community has blogs, videos, forums, resource library, events etc. all designed for those interested in the Government IT industry
• Newsletter:  You can sign up for the IDC Government Insights newsletter
• The IDC 2012 Predictions portal is at: http://www.idc.com/research/Predictions12/Main/index.jsp

IBM: 2011 Technology Trends Survey Results and Report

Last month, IBM released it’s 2011 IBM Tech Trends Report, which is one of the top reports I suggest you read about tech trends going into 2012.  It’s a great report because it’s developed from a survey of more than 4000 IT professionals from 93 countries and 25 different industries. 

Summary: 

The IT professionals surveyed identify adoption drivers and inhibitors around important emerging trends such as Analytics, Cloud Computing, Mobile, and Social Business. 

Key findings in the 2011 IBM Tech Trends Report include:

• Analytics:  Analytics was named as the most in demand area for software development in the future.
• Open Source:  87% of respondents believe open source and open standard technologies will play a key role in the future of application development.
• Cloud Computing:  During the next 2 years more than 75%  of organizations will engage in cloud computing.
• Mobile and Cloud.  Fifty-one percent of respondents cited the adoption of cloud technologies as part of their mobile strategy.
• Social Business.  Regional cultural differences impact social business adoption. India is highest with a 57% adoption rate, while US is at 45% and China’s at 44%. Russia shows the strongest resistance with a 19% adoption rate.

Top 8 Programming Skill Areas Identified

1. Application Development
2. Mobile
3. Cloud Computing
4. Database Management
5. Business Analytics
6. Security
7. Software/systems engineering
8. Business Process Management

For More Information: 

Report:  Get the report and share your thoughts at: http://www.ibm.com/developerworks/techtrendsreport

Twitter:  Join the Twitter conversation: #TechTrends

Videos:

• Overview of IBMBM 2011 Tech Trends Report
• Mobile Computing insights from IBM 2011 Tech Trends Report
• Cloud Computing insights from IBM 2011 Tech Trends Report
• Social Business insights from IBM 2011 Tech Trends Report
• Business Analytic insights from IBM 2011 Tech Trends Report

Press Release:  IT Professionals Predict Watson Technology To Transform Education Industry

Nucleus Research: Top 10 Technology Predictions for 2012

Back in October, Nucleus Research (Boston) announced its Top 10 Technology Predictions for 2012.  Now that I am well into my trends research for 2012, I thought I’d blog about the Nucleus list.

Nucleus believes there will be an overall increase in IT spending in 2012 as companies start allocating more budget towards technology in order to meet business goals.   However, Nucleus cautions that the European banking crisis and the US budget debate remain as key issues in the overall global economy.

As far as technology trends and themes,  the cloud, mobility, and big data are a few of the trends driving Nucleus's 2012 predictions.  The ten predictions (and my summary) is below:

1. Productive Enterprise:  The most successful firms in 2012 will be those that integrate technologies like mobile and social software in order to maximize the productivity of employees
2. The Cloud Changes Development:  Nucleus says that the cloud will make development even more virtual as CIOs will not care where the developer is as long as good code is delivered on time.
3. SAP Reemerges:  Nucleus expects SAP to leverage recent innovations like mobile device access and cloud delivery in order to create more customer value
4. Big Beats Best-of-Breed:   Tech buyers are expected to increasingly look to big tech vendors for their solutions as usability, integration and TCO become more valued criteria in buying decisions.
5. More Ways for All to Manage Big Data:  Businesses will increasingly turn to advanced analytics to draw insights out of the growing mounds of data.
6. Capital Moves from Labor to Technology:  Given a choice, firms will spend more on technology in 2012 than on labor, hopefully improving the productivity of the existing workforce rather than adding to it.
7. The Decade of Smarter Software:  Nucleus expects to see more intelligent applications that anticipate, search for, analyze, and push dashboard information to worker’s desktop.
8. Labor Finally Gets Optimized:  According to Nucleus, businesses will use tools to help them figure out which employees are the most productive, show up on time, create the least scrap, and book the most sales.
9. Healthcare Investments Increase:  Nucleus says that in 2012 Healthcare organizations will invest in data capture devices and services and electronic records management applications, spurred on by Government incentives.
10. Renewed Focus on the Customer Experience:  Nucleus expects strong investment in CRM and related applications in 2012, as companies seek to retain their most profitable customers and attract new ones

Predictions 1, 6, and 8 all seem inter-related and could probably have been combined.   Regarding number 9, while I’d love to see a surge in healthcare investments, I believe EHR will continue to have a slow adoption cycle.

For more information, check out the Nucleus Top 10 Predictions for 2012 research paper.

Culture Plays A Big Part In Social Business Adoption

A couple colleagues recently reached out to me on the topic of how best to implement social business within a mature company.  Some employees seem to flock to the latest collaboration and social technologies on their own.  Most employees seem unsure why they should be using these technologies and how to go about getting started.   Finally, some employees want to avoid social and collaboration technologies at all costs.

The fact is that emerging technologies do get a lot of hype and sometimes leaders decide to implement these new hyped technologies without the proper understanding of the change that will be required in business processes and what the impact that will have on employees.

The bottom line for me with any new emerging technology...whether it is is analytics, cloud computing, or social business is that successful implementations of new technologies must have three strategy elements integrated and in place 1) Technology Strategy (the new emerging applications and tools)  2) People Strategy (changes to skills, organization, and culture) 3)  Business Process Strategy (changes to tasks, activities, etc.). 

Too often I see a focus on the technology strategy too much without a focus on the other two.  It's like a three legged stool....if one or two legs are bad the stool falls down.   The business leader must focus on having the proper people and processes in place and that often depends on the culture that business leader develops and promotes within the organization.  Leaders who give the green light to implementing new technologies without understanding the impact on people and processes, will only see those technology initiatives fail.

So my message and advice is that culture does play a big part in implementing change within a mature corporation.  In my mind, culture change is the responsibility of our business leaders and therefore leaders should not implement new emerging technologies unless they understand the impact on people and processes.

Regarding the topic of implementing social business and the cultural implications of doing so, I’ve developed a list of links for those of you who would like to read up more on this topic.  Enjoy.

• IBM:  The New Collaboration:  Enabling innovation, changing the workplace
• IBM:  The Social Business:  Advent of a new age
• Book:  IBM Press Planning and Implementing Social Software for your Enterprise
• IDC:  Social Business Framework:  Using People as a Platform to Enable Transformation
• IDC:  Becoming a Social Business:  The IBM Story
• Dachis Group:  Social Business Design
• Case Study:   Alstom - People and Process First.  Technology Second
• Linkage White Paper:  Social Media:  Finding Its Way into Your Business Strategy and Culture
• Tieto White Paper:  Transforming in a social business
• Book Chapter:   Leader Does as Culture Is
• Book:  http://www.thecultureofcollaboration.com/ a book by Evan Rosen.  Evan blogs also at http://collaborationblog.typepad.com/
• Blog Post:  Social Business Impacts People, Process, & Technology

For more information on the Social Business trend itself, check out my other Social Business related blog posts

IDC: 2012 Predictions for Information Technology Industry

“IDC predicts that worldwide IT spending will grow 6.9% year over year to $1.8 trillion in 2012. As much as 20% of this total spending will be driven by the technologies that are reshaping the IT industry – smartphones, media tablets, mobile networks, social networking, and big data analytics.”  - IDC Press Release

IDC released it’s high level list of predictions for 2012 yesterday.  I attended the annual international conference call which kicks off a series of IDC predictions and trends calls over the next few months. 

The 10 high level prediction areas from IDC for 2012 are:

1. Worldwide IT Spending Growth – Spending growth returns to the industry, fueled by the emerging markets and mobile computing.  European debt crisis could spoil the party.
2. Emerging Markets Growth – China to pass Japan in IT spending as emerging markets grows to 28% share of total global spending.
3. Mobility Devices & Apps – Smartphone/Tablet usage grows and users want these devices to do everything.  Mobile apps explosion continues and the O/S battle rages.
4. Cloud Services Adoption – Spending on cloud services growing 4 times the industry rate.  Apps moving increasingly to the cloud.  PaaS and SaaS wars/acquisitions accelerate.
5. Cloud Services Enablement – Increased cloud services growth will drive huge demand for IT hardware and software offerings that enable those cloud services as well as for technologies that can optimize the cloud data center infrastructure
6. Mobile Networks – IDC says that in 2012 spending on mobile data services will surpass fixed data spending, that growth of video traffic will be an issue, and that telcos are expected to focus on mobile cloud strategies.
7. Big Data Analytics – Digital data continues to grow at an alarming rate (48% in 2012) resulting in focus on Big Data and analytic ‘mashups’ and related M&A activity.
8. Social Business – IDC expects battles to continue between between Microsoft, SAP, Oracle, and IBM while Facebook aims to become the B2C platform of choice.
9. Interactive Network of Things – The number of embedded systems, entertainment devices, appliances, and industrial automotive computing devices will outnumber traditional IT input devices by 2014.
10. Intelligent Industry Solutions - Smart Cities related efforts will drive over $40 billion in technology investments in 2012, mainly in Energy, Government, and Healthcare.

The IDC predictions list aligns well with the research I have been doing the last few months.  I will be issuing my own annual trends report in early January. 

The 10 IDC predictions are detailed in the full report IDC Predictions 2012: Competing for 2020 which was authored by Frank Gens, IDC’s Senior VP & Chief Analyst with help from a vast army of IDC analyst teams. 

IDC’s prediction portal for 2012 is at www.idc.com/Predictions12 and it is there you can link to all sorts of content, events, press releases, and complementary research.  I recommend you check out the “Video Commentary” Frank Gens, IDC’s Senior VP & Chief Analyst .  You can also follow IDC on Twitter http://twitter.com/#!/idc  for real-time news and updates.