HorizonWatching

AdAge: 5 Mobile Advertising Trends To Watch In 2010

Mobile is such a megatrend.  Mobile technologies, applications and services will be big a big story in 2010 and this shift in computing will impact our lives forever.  That is a fact we can not deny.   So I have my radar tuned to any content that helps me understand the underlying drivers and trends.

AdAge recently had an article titled Five Mobile Trends for 2010 that caught my eye.  It provides us with a perspective of the mobile megatrend from those in the advertising industry.  The two authors Dan Neumann (Organic) and Allison Mooney (MobileBehavior) have been focusing on the mobility trend and the impact it will have on advertising.  The article provides their thoughts on the key trends.

Here’s my summary of the five trends they see…

1. Local Advertising.  Mobile will completely revolutionize the way local advertisers can connect with potential customers.  Mobile search and location based services will allow small local retailers and service providers to reach consumers like they’ve never
2. Shopping Applications.  The growth in adoption of mobile shopping applications (apps such as price comparison, user product reviews, coupons) will continue to alter in-store consumer behavior. 
3. Branded Apps and Display Media.   The authors expect that brands and agencies will continue to build their own branded apps.  However thanks to Google, they will also have more attractive display media options.  The authors say to watch out for Google as it attempts to one-up the iPhone app experience.
4. Outdoor Advertising.   The authors give a few examples of where mobile users can now interact with outdoor ads and signage, opening up a whole new set of opportunities for advertisers.
5. Social Provides Instant Feedback.  Social technologies give users the ability to express their opinions anywhere, anytime.   Companies need to figure out how to embrace this as part of their marketing process, encouraging and acting on the real-time feedback.

Some interesting trends along with a unique perspective from the advertising industry.  I think it is safe to say that Google has an iron-clad plan to grab their share of the mobile advertising market. 

Deloitte: Seven Telecommunications Predictions for 2010

My last two posts provided a summary of technology predictions and media predictions from Deloitte’s Technology, Media & Telecommunications (TMT) Industry group.  In this post I will provide a summary of Deloitte’s predictions for the Telecommunications Industry.

The topics covered in this year's report include the growing importance of mobile search for smartphones, changes in network technologies and pricing plans to cope with the explosion of data, and changes in the scale of wireless contracts both in terms of up-time and duration.

Here’s my summary of Deloitte’s telecommunications predictions for 2010

1. The smartphone becomes a search-phone.  Mobile search will most certainly become one of the hottest mobile apps and it will be a critical part of any future mobile platform.  The next few years will be exciting and first mover advantage will be critical.
2. Mobile VoIP becomes a social network.  Deloitte says that 2010 could be an inflection year for mobile VoIP.   However, I won’t be holding my breath.  I think its still a few years away….but I do agree it will be driven by Facebook (and perhaps Twitter) users.
3. Widening the bottleneck. Telecom technology helps decongest the mobile network.  Deloitte says technologies that help speed up wireless networks should experience healthy growth in 2010.  With all the millions of devices accessing networks, there’s bound to be congestion problems.
4. Paying for what we eat. Carriers change data pricing and make regulators happy.  Similar to trends we are seeing in highway congestion charging, Deloitte says to expect carriers to start billing customers based on how much data they use, when they use it, and also what kind of data is being used.
5. Nixing the nines:  reliability redefined and reassessed.  Deloitte says since enterprises are exploring ways to save money, they will begin to tolerate lower service levels on non-priority services and applications.
6. Contract 2.0: long-term solutions shorten and multiply.  Deloitte says that while demand for telco solutions will increase, the continued enterprise focus on cost savings will drive shorter contract terms.
7. The line goes leaner. And greener.   Expect a focus by the telecommunications industry on reducing C02 emissions, with the main driver for that focus being cost savings (rather than a desire to improve the environment).

For more information and detail, check out the 28 page report Deloitte 2010 Global Telecommunications Predictions or you could also listen to the Deloitte Telecommunications Predictions podcast

Deloitte: Eight Media Predictions For 2010

My last post provided a summary of seven technology predictions from Deloitte’s Technology, Media & Telecommunications (TMT) Industry group.  In this post I will provide a summary of Deloitte’s predictions for the media industry.  

Deloitte covers a wide range of topics in these predictions, including demand for on-demand TV, the integration of television and the web and the short-term prospects for 3D television.

Here’s my summary of Deloitte’s eight predictions for media…

1. Linear's got legs: the television and radio schedule stays supreme.   Deloitte says that most content will continue to be consumed according to broadcasters' programming schedules.   I’d have to agree here, I don’t see this changing dramatically in 2010…or for the next few years.
2. The shift to online advertising: more selective, but the trend continues.  Deloitte sees this trend accelerating and as a result advertisers will look for better ways to measure the effectiveness of advertising online.
3. eReaders fill a niche, but eBooks fly off the (virtual) shelves.  Deloitte says that eReaders will not have a breakout year, but we should expect more and more users to download eBooks to their current devices.  For myself, I do find myself downloading e-books every once in a while to my desktop.  But only to skim them, not to read them like I would a book.   While I like the general idea of a Kindle, I think I will wait until there is an e-paper version.
4. Publishing fights back: pay walls and micropayments.  In 2010, Deloitte says that traditional newspapers and magazines will continue to try to find ways they can charge for online content.  I think this is an uphill battle for the newspapers and magazines.  I can’t see paying for their content online when similar content is available for free.
5. Music as a service rises up the charts.  Deloitte says music on mobile devices will be hot and at the same time the major industry players will be experimenting more with subscription based music service offerings.  I do see this as a growth area.  However, my 3 year old iPod Nano serves my needs just fine.
6. TV and the Web belong together, but not necessarily on the same screen.  Deloitte says that the trend towards convergence of the TV/Web experience will continue.  My vision is two screens on the wall side by side.   That is how I work at my desk.  I have a TV on the right side of my desk and a display monitor in the middle.
7. Video-on-demand takes off - thanks to the vending machine.  Deloitte says that while growth in the internet as a distribution channel for video content continues to grow, the revenue growth in the industry is all in the DVD vending machines. 
8. One step back, two steps forward for 3D TV.  Deloitte implies that the success of the 3D version of Avatar will not necessarily translate into 3D TV growth.  I don’t see myself buying a 3D TV anytime soon.  In the long run, perhaps for gaming, but not for regular TV shows.

For more on the media predictions from Deloitte, you can download the summary report and/or the detailed report.  For more on the Deloitte TMT predictions, you can check out the Deloitte TMT predictions website.  There’s also the TMT 12 minute podcast.

I’ve embedded the summary report found on Slideshare.

Deliotte: Media Predictions 2010

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Deloitte: Seven Technology Predictions for 2010

Every year, Deloitte’s Technology, Media & Telecommunications (TMT) Industry group publishes a set of predictions for the coming year.  So I was interested in taking a look at what was on their list for 2010 predictions. 

High on the list of predictions is the continued impact of the consumerization of IT, especially the trend where employees want their consumer devices to be able to access the corporate network.  Other hot trends include the rapid rise of mobile VOIP, mobile search, and advances in green technologies.

The Deloitte TMT team actually provides prediction lists in each of the three areas (Technology, Media & Telecommunications.  In this post I will focus on the predictions for Technology and save the media and telecommunications predictions for a potential future post.

Here’s a summary of Deloitte’s technology predictions

1. Smaller Than A Netbook And Bigger Than A Smartphone: Net Tablets Arrive:  While the buzz last year was on netbooks, Deloitte says tablets will be the big story of 2010
2. Moore’s Law Is Alive And Well In 2010.  Deloitte predicts the focus will be on developing chips that use less electricity, cost less, and are smaller.
3. Cloud Computing:  More Than Hype, But Less Than Hyper.  Deloitte says growth will be strongest in consumer and SMB segments and has advice for cloud providers trying to reach large enterprise and government clients.
4. Thinking Thin Is In Again:  Virtual Desktop Infrastructures (VDI) Challenge The PC.  Deloitte says 2010 could be a breakout year for VDI, with over 1million seats going thin.
5. IT Procurement Stands On ITs Head.  IT will need to be more flexible as employees want their consumer devices to be able to access the corporate network.
6. CleanTech Makes A Comeback, But Solar Stays In The Shadows.  Deloitte says Cleantech investments will grow in 2010, thanks in part to government spending.
7. From Gray To Green:  Technology Reinvents Cement.  IT’s impact on reducing global CO2 emissions and construction costs can be significant.

With the Apple announcement looking like it is going to happen this week, I guess prediction number one is all lined up and ready to be realized.  The other 6 are good predictions/trends to highlight.   Numbers 6 and 7 are important, but I’m not sure our governments will continue to plow stimulus dollars into the economy.

For more information, you can access pdf reports of the technology predictions.  Deloitte offers both a summary report  and a longer detailed report.   For more on the Deloitte TMT predictions, check out the Deloitte Predictions website or listen to the 12 minute podcast. 

I’ve embedded the summary report mentioned above that I found out on slideshare.

Deliotte: Technology Predictions 2010

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IBM IdeaWatch: Innovative Thought Leadership On Intelligent Computing For A Smarter Planet

I subscribe to IdeaWatch, a monthly e-newsletter sent out by IBM’s Institute for Business Value team.  The newsletter always provides interesting articles.   The articles contain strategic insights and recommendations based on research that IBM’s Institute for Business Value team of analysts and consultants regularly perform.  The articles help me stay informed on the critical issues facing business leaders. 

Today I opened the most recently newsletter in my in-basket.  You can see the full online version at IdeaWatch.  Here’s a list of the articles in the current issue:

• The World’s US$4 Trillion Challenge:  Using a system of systems approach to build a smarter planet
• How To Make Your City Smarter:  Creating and assessing the path to prosperity
• Intelligent Transport:  How cities can improve mobility
• Supply chain management:  The Smarter Supply Chain of the Future: Global Chief Supply Chain Officer Study
• Travel & transportation:  The smarter railroad: An opportunity for the railroad industry
• Ideas for smarter cities:   Welcome to TheSmarterCity. Not a vision of tomorrow, but a vision of today.
• North American Smarter Cities Virtual event:  In just one day, you could improve every day in your city
• A Smarter Planet:  Find out more about the Decade of Smart

As mentioned above, you can access the current version of the e-newsletter online at IdeaWatch.  From that page you can also access all the previous issues.

If you are not yet subscribing to this monthly e-newsletter, I encourage you to do so.  It’s a nice monthly digest that provides with current thought leadership content. To subscribe, you’ll need to go to the subscription center for IBM e-newsletters https://www-931.ibm.com/bin/subscriptions/welcome.cgi?cl=ZZEN and once you register with your email id, you’ll be presented with a list of e-newsletters.   Look for IdeaWatch: Business Perspectives from IBM Global Business Services and select it to subscribe.

Gartner: Key Predictions for IT Organizations and Users in 2010 and Beyond

Gartner recently released a report titled Key Predictions for IT Organizations and Users in 2010 and Beyond. 

"As organizations make plans to navigate the economic recovery and prepare for the return to growth, our predictions for 2010 focus on the impact of critical changes in the balance of control and power in IT.  With greater financial and regulatory oversight for all IT investment decisions, few organizations will be unaffected." - Brian Gammage, vice president and research fellow at Gartner.

Here’s a summary of the predictions contained in the report

• Reduction in hardware requirements: By 2012, 20 percent of businesses will own no IT assets.
• India as a major player in the IT Services Industry:  By 2012, India-centric IT services companies will represent 20 percent of the leading cloud aggregators in the market (through cloud service offerings).
• Social Networking:   By 2012, Facebook will become the hub for social network integration and Web socialization.
• Sustainability & Carbon Accounting trend:  By 2014, most IT business cases will include carbon remediation costs.
• Sustainability & Greener PCs:   In 2012, 60 percent of a new PC's total life greenhouse gas emissions will have occurred before the user first turns the machine on.
• Internet Marketing Regulation:  Internet marketing will be regulated by 2015, controlling more than $250 billion in Internet marketing spending worldwide.
• Growth of the Mobile Internet:  By 2014, over 3 billion of the world's adult population will be able to transact electronically via mobile or Internet technology.
• Context Will Be Key To The Mobile Consumer’s Experience:  By 2015, context will be as influential to mobile consumer services and relationships as search engines are to the Web.
• Mobile Phones Will Dominate:  By 2013, mobile phones will overtake PCs as the most common Web access device worldwide.

For more information:

• Check out the press release for this report at http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1278413
• The full report  "Gartner's Top Predictions for IT Organizations and Users, 2010 and Beyond: A New Balance." is located at  http://www.gartner.com/resId=1268513.

IDC Insights: 2010 Predictions for Manufacturing Supply Chains

Today I attended the IDC Manufacturing Insights conference call where IDC outlined its 2010 Predictions for Manufacturing Supply Chains.  On the call Simon Ellis, IDC Mfg Insights Practice Director, Supply Chain and Kimberly Knickle, IDC Mfg Insights Practice Director, Emerging Agenda outlined the firm’s recommendations for manufacturer supply chains in 2010

The call started with a overall look at economic trends affecting supply chains disciplines such as procurement, planning, manufacturing and logistics and then moved into the top 10 predictions.  The overall theme from IDC is that manufacturing companies need to rethink their supply chain structures and begin to evolve to a variable-cost-driven value network.

Here is a summary of the top ten trends.

1. Optimization Focus: “Dynamic Optimization” dominates Capability Investment to Support Redefining of the Supply Chain
2. Sales & Operation Planning:  S&OP Will Re-emerge as the Synchronizing Process for Reconciling Supply and Demand
3. Redesigning Supply Chains:  Balancing Supply and Demand Across the Value Chain Will Prompt a Strategic Redesign of the Supply Network
4. SCM and PLM Convergence:  Supply Chain and Product Life-Cycle Management Applications Will Increasingly Converge as Manufacturing Companies Focus on Innovation Delivery
5. Intelligent Supply Chains:  Intelligent Supply Chains Will Put Broader Visibility Burden on Supply Chain Organizations, Both Owned and Outsourced
6. Globalization:   Supply Chain Organizations Will Invest in Capabilities That Facilitate Global Operations
7. Rethinking Fulfillment:  Transportation Capacity Will Tighten, Causing Supply Chain Organizations to Rethink Fulfillment Strategies
8. Risk Management:  The Increasing Pace of Supply Chain Outsourcing/Offshoring Will Keep Risk Management High on the Strategic Agenda, But Investment Will Remain Focused on Building Risk Awareness
9. Time to Get Smarter?  Smart Services and the Need for Persistent Assets Create the Inflection Point for RFID, Sensors, and M2M
10. Metrics Drive Intelligence:  Armed with Metrics, Manufacturers Move from Sustainability Reporting to Intelligence

As the IDC team summarized the call, it was stated that 2010 will be the year of the intelligent supply chain.  There will be a focus on developing smarter processes, products, plants, people, and partners.   This thought confirms IBM’s Smarter Planet campaign.

You can register for access to the conference call webinar and slides by going to IDC Insights Predictions 2010: Manufacturing Supply Chain.  There is also a detailed research report on the topic:  Worldwide Supply Chain 2010 Top 10 Predictions

For more information…

• IDC Manufacturing Insights www.idc-mi.com
• IDC Manufacturing Insights Community http://idc-insights-community.com/manufacturing
• IDC Manufacturing Insights Industry Newsletter Click here

Network World: 10 Start-ups to Watch in 2010

NetworkWorld recently published its Outlook 2010 issue.  One of the articles included in that outlook featured a look at emerging companies in start-up mode.   The article 10 Start-ups to Watch in 2010 was written by Jon Brodkin.  Here is a summary of the ten companies mentioned in the article

1. CloudSwitch:  Moves existing applications to public clouds, without having to rewrite them.  www.cloudswitch.com
2. Dasient:  Has a new web security service designed to identify legitimate Web sites infected by malicious code.  www.dasient.com
3. Eucalyptus Systems:  Offers open source software that aggregates infrastructure into private clouds and allows end-user customization and self-service provisioning.  www.eucalyptus.com
4. HyTrust:  Offers a virtualization security tool that provides a centralized point of control. www.hytrust.com
5. MeLLmo: Offers “Roambi”, which takes business intelligence data and converts it into interactive visualizations for the iPhone.  www.roambi.com
6. MobileIron: Offers a Virtual Smartphone Platform that provides IT department visibility into mobile devices and their data.   www.mobileiron.com
7. Vineyard Networks:  Offers NetCore On Demand, which is a SaaS network management tool.  www.vineyardnetworks.com
8. Viridity Software:  Viridity helps reduce energy usage by mapping the connections between applications and specific IT equipment. www.viridity.com
9. Wanova:  Offers virtual desktop software enabling better performance and offline desktop use for mobile and remote workers.   http://wanova.com
10. Zetta: Provides a cloud storage service with enterprise-class features. http://www.zetta.net

As you can see, cloud, virtualization, and mobile are some common threads.

For more on these companies, check out the article 10 Start-ups to Watch in 2010  and the slideshow.

IDC Insights: Retail Industry Predictions for 2010

IDC held its "IDC Insights Predictions 2010: Retail" web briefing last Wednesday, January 13, 2010.  Leading the call were IDC Retail Insights analysts Leslie Hand, Ivano Ortis, and Group Vice President Bob Parker.

The conference call provided insights into current driving forces impacting retailers (including Sustainability, POS systems and RFID, and customer experience) and important IT investment trends for 2010 in the area of supply chain, demand planning, merchandising, and point-of-sale (POS) business initiatives.

Certainly, the economy had a big impact on retail in 2009 and that trend is expected to continue in 2010.  However, retail will begin emerging in 2010 with new business models and perhaps new industry leaders.

Here’s a summary of the 10 predictions IDC provided on the conference call.

1. Growth Strategies:  IDC says that in 2010, retailers will seek growth strategies based on “Same Shopper” sales and first time buyers.
2. New IT Investment Strategies:  IDC predicts retailers will launch aggressive technology investment programs to support new business models while reducing traditional IT costs.
3. Getting More Value From Supply Chains:  Retailers will extract more value from their supply chains, responding adeptly to customer, supplier, and regulatory influences.
4. Devil is in the Details:  IDC says that retailers reach nirvana where PLM information informs intelligent automation
5. Customer Experience:  Retailers will focus on customer experience solutions convergence. CRM, SCM, and BI applications on a single source of demand information.
6. Mobile Shopping:  IDC expects retailers will drive mobile consumer interaction and this will usher in the open shopping era.
7. Demand Information To Drive Customer Loyalty:  Retailers will work on building customer intimacy and loyalty while improving brand performance.
8. Harvesting Intelligence:  IDC says that in 2010, retail investment in demand intelligence and BI will be driven by a need to lower inventory costs and be more customer centric.
9. Sustainability Initiatives:  IDC predicts retailers will build sustainable lean enterprises
10. Social Commerce:  IDC cleverly states that traditional retailers are on the Titanic and the approaching iceberg is online social commerce.

The formal part of the call ended with the IDC team reviewing their four pillars of investment for retailers.  Here’s a summary of the four pillars.

• Drive IT Infrastructure savings
• Harvest Demand Intelligence
• Drive Improved Customer Experience
• Improve The Supply Network

The four pillars seem pretty obvious when I look at them…and you could make the case that those pillars have been important for decades and will still be important for many more decades to come.

For more information

• You can access the 60 minute web briefing via IDC Insights Predictions 2010: Retail
• The full predictions document Worldwide Retail Industry 2010 Top 10 Predictions
• IDC Insights Retail Community
• IDC Insights Retail Newsletter
• IDC’s Worldwide Retail Industry 2010 Top 10 Predictions

IDC: Worldwide SMB Market Top 10 Predictions 2010

I attended IDC’s Worldwide SMB Market Top 10 Predictions 2010 conference call today.  The call was led by Raymond Boggs, Vice President, Small/Medium Business and Home Office Research, but included a long list of analysts from IDC’s Small Business team.

IDC predicts that while SMB IT spending will recover, the impact of the recession will linger, impacting spending.  The conference call provided insights into how SMB spending on IT is changing by company size, by geography, and by technology.

Here’s a summary of the top predictions as presented on the conference call.

1. IT Spending Recovers, But Not Enough To Make Up For 2009 Decline:  IDC forecasts SMB IT spending will grow 3.7% over 2009 (decline in 2009 was 4.3%).  Total IT spending by SMB will reach  $509.6 billion in 2010.
2. Developed Regions:  SMB spending recovery will be more modest in developed regions.
3. Developing Regions:  IDC forecasts that we’ll see more dramatic SMB spending gains in developing regions, including CEMA at +9.9%, Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) at +7.3%, and Latin America at +7.1%. 
4. Mid-Sized Firms:  IDC says that IT spending growth in mid-sized firms will outpace spending in smaller firms. .
5. IT Spending Categories:  IDC says all IT spending categories will benefit from the increased SMB spending in 2010.  IDC expects services, software, and PCs/peripherals will benefit most, with 3-4% gains.
6. Workforce Productivity:  IDC expects growth in spending for productivity tools to support remote workers and mobile employees.
7. Cloud Computing and Software-as-a-Service: IDC says spending for Cloud and SaaS will gain traction in 2010, especially among medium-sized businesses. .
8. Social Media:   IDC predicts that the use of social media will rise as SMBs figure out how to use it to reach new customers and learn about new technology.
9. Focus on Innovative Solutions with Near-Term Benefits:  IDC says SMBs will be looking for alternative approaches to solutions and productivity tools that can provide near term benefits.  Social computing, mobility, personal storage, advanced networks, Cloud computing and SaaS all can add new productivity capabilities to SMBs, but SMBs will be looking to implement those solutions that can provide quick benefits.
10. IT Infrastructure:  IDC expects that SMBs will continue to focus on building infrastructure capabilities (storage, security, and network resources) in order to support initiatives.

I have a big place in my heart for SMBs as that is the market where I ‘cut my teeth’ in the early 80’s when I joined IBM as a S/34 Systems Engineer and worked later as a Sales Rep.  Back then there were many, many SMBs that I called on that did not even have a computer in house.  Getting some of them to install GLAPPR and BICSARSA applications was a major sales effort.  There’s no question that the market for selling and servicing SMB organizations has totally changed since the early 80’s!!

For more information:

• You can listen access a replay of the conference call Worldwide SMB Predictions 2010
• Watch the IDC website for the release of the document Worldwide SMB 2010 Top 10 Predictions: Challenging Economy Will Sharpen Technology Focus on Near-Term Productivity Gains
• Check out the SMB IDC website “Solving the SMB Puzzle”