HorizonWatching

Friday Gadget: The Spruce Whale – An aircraft we’ll see in 2095?

I’ve been doing these Friday gadget posts for almost three years now.  For me, these Friday gadget posts are not only about having fun on a Friday, but have always been about imagining the future.  What types of products will future generations have that will make their life easier?  In addition, how will emerging technologies play?

For this week’s post, I found a concept by designer Reindy Allendra for an aircraft we might see in 85 years.  Randy calls it the WB-1010 but affectionately also calls it the Spruce Whale (named after the famous Spruce Goose).  He’s entered the design into a KLM design contest.

According to the design specs, the WB-1010 (named after the Wright Brothers)  will be constructed from material made of thin layers of metal and glass fibre. Other featured include:

• Ability to harvest wind energy into electricity.
• An extractable robotic stand would also be used during the craft’s vertical landings.
• Seats for more than 1500 people.
• It can reach speeds of over 600mph
• Helium injected in the body makes the plane lighter

For more, see Randy’s post at Yanko Design here http://www.yankodesign.com/2009/10/14/the-spruce-whale/

House Passes Wind Energy Research and Development Act of 2009

Wind energy currently makes up 2% of the total energy generation in the United States, but there is the potential for it to provide up to 20% with the right improvements in turbine technology, forecasting, energy storage, and expansion of transmission systems.

So it is great to see that the U.S. lawmakers are starting to focus on this area.  Yesterday, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the Wind Energy Research and Development Act of 2009.  The bill, if eventually signed into law, would authorize a comprehensive program to improve the efficiency, reliability and cost effectiveness of domestic wind energy systems.

The bill would authorize the Secretary of Energy to carry out a program of research and development to improve the energy efficiency, reliability, and capacity of wind turbines; optimize the design and adaptability of wind energy systems; and reduce the cost of construction, generation, and maintenance of wind energy systems.

Specifically, this program would include:

• Examination of new materials and designs to make larger, lighter, less expensive, and more reliable motor blades
• Technologies to improve gearbox performance and reliability
• Technologies to improve transmission from remotely located renewable resource rich areas
• Low-cost transportable towers greater than 100 meters in height
• Advanced computational modeling tools, control systems, blade sensors and advanced generators
• Wind technology for offshore applications
• Automation, materials, and assembly of large-scale components
• Methods to assess and mitigate the effects of wind energy systems on radar and electromagnetic fields
• Wind turbines with a maximum electric power production capacity of 100 kilowatts or less

The bill authorizes $200 million dollars per year from 2010 through 2014 for these programs.

Let’s hope this bill, or something like it, makes it way into law.

For more information

• Wind Energy Research and Development Act of 2009
• New Roadmaps for Wind and Solar Research and Development

How Electric Utility Companies Are Adapting to Climate Change

I caught some news that the IBM Electric Utilities team is having a web-launch of an IBM sponsored report that reveals how electric utility companies around the world are adapting to climate change, based on their responses to the Carbon Disclosure Project 2008 questionnaire.   Sounds like an interesting report.  Find out how to attend the web-launch below.

The launch event explores the actions taken by electric utilities to assess and manage the risks brought about by climate change, whilst also identifying the opportunities that a changing climate will have on their business models.   It analyzes the current energy challenges, specific drivers for adaptation and provides senior executive level guidance on the actions needed to adapt and build business resilience to the impacts of climate change.   The report also recognizes that adaptation is an increasingly critical issue for governments, regulators, investors and the financial markets.

This unique event will also give the audience an opportunity to ask key questions to our expert panel. The report will address:

• The Energy Revolution: this century will see unprecedented urbanization and intense competition for scarce resources, driven by population growth and economic development. A changing climate will exacerbate these challenges.
• These climate impacts add up to significant changes in the demand for electricity against a backdrop of supply challenges, ageing assets, new technology, prescriptive regulation and impacts on asset performance and efficiency.
• What will a successful electricity company of the future look like? Companies need to act upon the clear signals that climate change is already underway.
• Consumer preferences and needs will also change; markets will open up in new locations and for new products and services. Those businesses that do not react fast enough will lose out to their competitors, whilst those that recognize the opportunities will gain competitive advantage and become electricity sector leaders.

As each year goes by and action is delayed, the direct and indirect costs arising from changing climatic conditions will increase, threatening the sustainability of those companies that are slow to react.

THE LAUNCH : At the launch event, the authors of the report will highlight the key points from the report and in the final session will form a panel to take questions from the audience.

• Welcome address - Graham Butler, Executive Partner, Energy and Utilities Industry Leader, IBM UKISA
• CDP context - James Howard, Project Director, The Carbon Disclosure Project
• Introduction to the report - Michael Valocchi, Partner, Global Energy & Utilities Industry Leader, IBM
• Building business resilience - John Firth, Chief Executive Officer, Acclimatise
• IBM viewpoint - Graham Butler
• Question and Answer session - Panel

TO REGISTER :  You can register to attend the launch by clicking at this link
http://w.on24.com/r.htm?e=155271&s=1&k=C39B0A3708CFB38958232062CDA14807
Those not attending should register to access the replay easily.

8 Emerging CleanTech Investment Areas

A new report is claiming that, with an aggressive infrastructure investment, eight emerging technologies could meet 60 % of new energy demand by 2020.  It is also claiming that we could abate more CO2 than is necessary for climate stabilization in just 10 years.  

The report, titled  "The Gigaton Throwdown", was developed with the support of many, many people who are tied to the cleantech industry.  The effort was led, in part, by Sunil Paul, who is a founder of Silicon Valley’s Spring Ventures.

The report estimates that if annual global private investment in cleantech tripled between now and 2020, clean energy investments would be in line with fossil-fuel investments.   It is a lofty goal, but the authors say that if we are able to shift investment into ready cleantech solutions, the results would be world changing:  climate mitigation, energy security and 5 million new jobs planetwide.

The report highlights the eight emerging clean technology solution areas that are ready for investment and could yield the stated goals.

1. Biofuels
2. Building Efficiency
3. Concentrating Solar Power
4. Construction Materials
5. Geothermal
6. Nuclear
7. Solar Photovoltaics
8. Wind

According to the report each of the eight solutions listed above could feasibly deliver one giagaton of global energy, and each could avoid one gigaton of emissions from being discharged into the atmosphere by 2020, thus the idea for the name of the report.

Apparently the authors considered plug-in electric vehicles , but the projected adoption of this technology is predicted to be too slow to have an impact by 2020.

For more information:

• Access the 150 page report via the pdf file "The Gigaton Throwdown"
• Check out the Gigaton website
• Watch this Videos
• Read this Announcement Letter

Looking to 2050: Ten Challenges For The Human Race

Peter Schwartz is recognized internationally as a futurist and strategist.  He honed his skills at Royal Dutch/Shell Group in London, where he led a widely respected scenario planning effort.   He has written a number of interesting books about the future, including The Art of the Long View. 

This past May he gave the commencement address at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute.  During the address, he outlined ten longer term challenges for the human race as we look forward to the next 40-50 years.  He encouraged the graduates to come up with innovative solutions to these challenges. 

The top challenges Schwartz outlined are:

1. Creating long-term solutions to meet our energy demands sustainably.
2. Launching a bio-industrial revolution with sustainable manufacturing.
3. Understanding and enhancing the human brain to avert age-related impairments.
4. Improving agriculture to reduce costs and increase its energy and water efficiency.
5. Building sustainable cities through better urban planning and "smart architecture”.
6. Stimulating job growth and economic development.
7. Fusing the technological with the spiritual and aesthetic dimensions of human culture.
8. Advancing technological instruments to drive scientific discovery forward.
9. Harnessing biological tools to advance human evolution.
10. Discovering new ways to lower the costs and environmental impact of space flight and development.  

The list above is an interesting list.  I am not sure that these are the top ten most important challenges, but each of the above ten are certainly important. 

Some comments…

• Energy tops his list and it is hard to argue that it should not be there.  I can’t see the demand for energy going down anytime soon and we need to figure out how to transition to clean energy. 
• Improving agriculture processes in developing nations will have have a significant impact on the economy and quality of life.
• Building smarter and sustainable cities is a very large challenge as the number of megacities grow and grow.
• Number 9 on his list, “Harnessing biological tools to advance human evolution” sounds both scary and beneficial at the same time.
• Regarding number 10, with announced plans to go back to the moon and to Mars, we will need innovative ways to travel through space and live at the destinations we travel to.

It is worth pointing out that many on the list kind of fall under the push for a smarter planet.

If you want to read a transcript of Peter Schwartz’s commencement address, check out http://news.rpi.edu/update.do?artcenterkey=2585

Can you think of any other challenges Schwartz’s list?  The only one that comes to my mind right now is the never ending desire to live in a world free from war and conflict, but I don’t suppose for one minute that that will be solved in the next 40-50 years.

Midsize Companies Must Work Smarter, Leaner

A new IBM-sponsored study, “Inside the Midmarket: A 2009 Perspective”, found that although the economy is driving midsize companies to work smarter and leaner, many of these midsized companies are not actually decreasing their investments in IT, but maintaining current levels or increasing their IT spend to focus on strategic areas.

There is no doubt in my mind that these midmarket companies will play an important role in re-energizing the economy.  It is refreshing to see that these companies are not only resilient, but they are willing to invest in emerging technology areas that will position their companies for growth when the economy does improve.  

The study identified five important trends for midsized businesses:

1. The highest-priority technology solution, chosen by 75 percent of respondents, is Information Management, which turns mountains of data into meaningful insights.
2. The most pressing business challenges include increasing efficiency and productivity (80 percent), improving customer care (74 percent) and better use of information (72 percent).
3. The impact of the economy on IT budgets has caused 53 percent to actually increase or re-prioritize their spending, with 37 percent reporting a decrease.
4. Despite the economy, more than two-thirds of those surveyed are planning or currently implementing their top IT priorities.
5. A majority of firms view their primary IT provider as a technology advisor or IT and business consultant, with 25 percent seeing the relationship as purely transactional.

And despite pressure to cut costs, the survey found that midsize companies are proceeding with IT investments in emerging technologies in areas such as information management, social media, and cloud computing.    Although these areas showed up lower on the scale of critical priorities, midmarket companies are actively pursuing these emerging technology areas to improve performance.  The survey shows that 79 percent intend to implement or have established goals to implement Green IT solutions, while 71 percent said they have plans to implement Web2.0/social media solutions and 69 percent said the same for cloud computing solutions.

The “Inside the Midmarket study” was based on an online survey of 1,879 respondents in 17 countries, is designed to gain insight into the business plans and challenges, growth/innovation strategies, IT purchasing trends, and industry-specific pain points of midmarket companies (100 - 999 employees).  To download the study, visit http://www.ibm.com/press/attachments/ibm_midmarket_trend_study.pdf

Shifts in Cleantech Financing

This blog brings significant updates to my previous two blogs on Cleantech showing (1) that after a strong 2008, 1Q09 Cleantech investments have dropped and (2) the important role of Cleantech in the stimulus plans.

1- The Cleantech Group released 1Q09 VC investments in Cleantech which show a 45% drop compared to the previous quarter and a 48% drop compared to 1Q08.  The average round size dropped from  $20M in 3Q08 to $12.3M in 1Q09.

The report underlines that “Cleantech financing is moving into a new phase characterized by diversified funding sources as global recession and liquidity issues impact venture investors.  Venture funds continue to invest significant sums, albeit at a slower pace and scale”

Utilities and corporations are increasingly playing a leadership role in developing the sector. 

2- Meanwhile governments globally are allocating historic amounts of capital to clean technology through stimulus packages.  I should have added to my blog last week that the report “Towards a Green recovery” estimates that $400M  of  $2.6T spent in economic stimulus by G20 are earmarked for clean tech such as renewable energy, improved grids and cleaner cars. 

In the US, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Bill places Cleantech as a key driver of economic stabilization and job growth.  The measures (Over 10% of the total spending) target doubling renewable energy generating capacity (wind, solar, and geothermal).  Provisions also target efficiency, expanded electricity grids including advances metering, energy management SW and usage monitoring sensors.

The credit squeeze has challenged sectors such as wind and solar, stalling new and expansion projects.   The industry is still looking for clarity on how a new Treasury grant program will work.  Financing of projects slated to go forward is still taking extra time to get done.  The stimulus has generated more activity if not yet money for the renewable s sector.

 

Green Recovery?

 

A couple weeks ago, I discussed some trends in VC investments regarding Cleantech.  For the G20 summit early April, the Postdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and the Grantham Institute on Climate Change and the Environment published a very interesting document about the potential for a green recovery from the current recession.  (Towards a global Green Recovery) 

The report shows that “Public spending aimed at stimulating private investments that help reducing greenhouse gas emissions can perform very well against criteria for an effective stimulus while providing the additional benefits of lower energy costs and increased energy security.  By focusing on correcting well known market failures in energy use and R&D, it can avoid crowding out private sector activity.  In fact, green recovery programs have the potential to stimulate private investment in low carbon technologies, thereby developing new opportunities for employment, innovation, and wealth creation.”  The report also highlighted key measures that the G20 could take, including physical infrastructure upgrades, energy efficiency increases, and potential flagship project investments. 

So what happened?  The G20 communique included $1.1B in plan pledges – $750B for the IMF, $250B for trade and financing – as well as motions for stricter regulations on hedge funds and banks.  While many groups are arguing that a larger GDP share should go towards green initiatives, others are satisfied that those notions have become mainstream.  Personally, I think that the economic situation is such that priorities will focus on the fastest way to accelerate the recovery, possibly at the expense, at least initially, of green.

14 Emerging Technologies on My Radar

Here's some technologies that will impact us in the future that I am keeping my eye on.  Some of these are around today but just haven’t hit prime time, others are in the works. 

1. Internet 3.0    The web will transform into a personal agent that basically tells us what we want to to know and when we want to know it.  Important enabling technologies will be wireless technology, sensors, location and semantic technologies. 
2. Enterprise Social Networks:  We are already seeing the impact of social networks on our personal lives, but they are just starting to make inroads into enterprises.  Social networking technology will have profound impacts on management systems within enterprises.  Corporations will turn to new innovative business models based off of crowdsourcing, social network analysis, prediction markets and user ratings. 
3. Virtual Worlds:    There is no doubt that virtual worlds need to get easier before they become more mainstream.  It has to be integrated with social software platforms and instant messaging.  Ease of use, visible presence, unified communications and personalization will make virtual worlds a reality. 
4. Nanotechnology....Already having an impact in a number of industries, nanotechnology will enable unprecedented levels of control with incredibly small parts...having all sorts of implications for future materials, hardware components, and devices.
5. User Interfaces:   We are so used to using the mouse and the keyboard as an input device.  I think we are in the early stages of totally new ways to interact with our electronic devices.  The short term focus will be on touch technologies.  After that, I expect advancements in gesture computing and speech technology.  Regarding display technology, I'll be looking for new displays that will offer 3D, be flexible and project over large areas. 
6. 3D printers:  3D printers will provide a way for businesses to rapidly prototype potential products.  The technique involves "printing" three-dimensional objects with plaster or resin.  Some are even predicting a mass market for 3D printers for consumers.
7. Robots:  Robots will increasingly make their way into the business and consumer markets.  The Roomba vacuum robot we have in our house does a great job.  Expect robots to be increasingly used for applications like military operations, lifting and rescue operations, security, healthcare delivery, human companionship and other mundane chores. 
8. Mobile Applications & Services.   There can be no question that mobile devices are important to the future of business.  The gold rush is on to develop enterprise-based mobile applications, services and cloud infrastructures, both public and private.   I expect a flood of new application services designed specifically for the business mobile user, including those incorporating location awareness, video, and social technologies.  In the future, your mobile device will contain your profile information and will mediate relationships across social networks, commercial transactions, security clearances, and any device with embedded intelligence.
9. Human augmentation:   Technology is increasingly playing an important part in healthcare.  My eyesight is just great thanks to that Lasik surgery I had 9 years ago.   On the horizon are advancements in implants, brain interfaces, genetic selection and nerve to prosthesis applications.  If you saw the movie IronMan last year, you have an idea of where all this is heading. 
10. Telepresence/Video Conferencing.   Telepresence and 3D video conferencing capability will eventually be common for enterprises, having a huge impact on corporate travel, workforce collaboration and productivity.  It will allow enterprises to form closer relationships with clients, partners, and clients.
11. Quantum Computing....Perhaps a little further out than a 15 year planning horizon, quantum computing will allow computers to perform calculations in seconds versus the hours it takes today.
12. Embedded Intelligence...Embedded intelligence will enable an increasing amount of communication with mobile devices, appliances, store shelves, vehicles, bridges, buildings, people, animals, and even plants.  Embedded technologies and solutions will allow enterprises to create a true sense and respond framework.  By extracting useful events and insights from this data, organizations can quickly respond to new opportunities and / or threats. 
13. Cloud Computing... The rise of data-intensive applications, virtualization, and mobile and networking technologies is driving adoption of cloud computing.  As sensors proliferate and the world becomes 'smarter', more computing power will be needed to keep up with all the transactions.
14. Cleantech... There is a growing focus on products and services that improve the efficiency of assets while reducing energy usage, waste, or pollution.  There are a number of emerging technologies in this area, including water management, solar energy, wind energy, biofuel green buildings, green IT, intelligent transportation systems, smart grid, and fuel cells.

There's more than just fourteen on my radar list, but these come to front of mind right now.

IBM Launches Smarter Planet Campaign

In the future, every human being, company, organization, city, nation, natural system, and man-made system will be interconnected, instrumented, and intelligent.   Imagine what that will be like.  Wow! 

How do we get there?  IBM's Smart Planet campaign, which kicks off today, will help position IBM to participate in this future.   As I write this Sam Palmisano, IBM's CEO is preparing to speak to The Council on Foreign  Relations in New York City on the topic of “A Smarter Planet: The Next Leadership Agenda.  At the bottom of this post I'll provide some more links on the campaign

This is a perfect time to launch this campaign.  At this very moment in our planet's history, there are a number of very significant and fundamental shifts that are occurring in society, business and technology.  These shifts are playing an increasingly critical role in shaping the agenda of both the CEO and IT Managers.  IBM is in a unique position in the industry and should have a big role in communicating to CEOs and CIOs the implications of these shifts.  IBM will also need to deliver a roadmap to the future Smarter Planet.  Look for the Smarter Planet campaign to do just that.

Fundamental Shifts...

So let's reflect on some of the important shifts that are occurring across our great planet...

New Intelligence:  The explosion of information is driving the need for new  intelligent systems.

• An explosion of next-generation mobile & computing devices, a system of a trillion smart devices and physical things—more connected, alive with intelligence are creating insights that could improve competitive advantage.
• Scores of new devices and touch points that are collecting terabytes of valuable new customer data daily.   This has created a massive data explosion - enterprise data expected to grow 57% CAGR 2010
• Web 2.0 is enabling two-way collaboration with customers that is shaping new business models and razor thin margins are forcing companies to identify and capture customer opportunities in real-time

Globalization:  Globalization is transforming society and reshaping business at a rate that few imagined.

• Global markets are creating change on an unprecedented scale - new consumers, new infrastructure, new WW talent pools, and aggressive new competitors for Western markets will impact firms of all sizes
• A huge new global “middle class” is awakening before our eyes” – unfolding with a greater disposable income.  Just consider the impact China and India consumers will have in the future.
  • A growing Chinese middle and upper class: 2005=7%; 2015=45%; 2025=71%.
  • Indian middle and upper class: 2005=7%; 2015=26%; 2025=49%
• An estimated 2 Billion people will be on the Web by 2011.  This will drive an insatiable demand for goods and infrastructure.  Companies will have a much more demanding customer set that wants locally tailored/customized solutions.

Impact of Technology:  Technology has enabled a freedom of choice that has created a wealth of new client expectations.

• Technology is freeing people from traditional constraints that once governed their lives. It is enabling personal and professional “freedom” and interaction wherever, whenever, however.
• Growing global prosperity is giving rise to the pursuit of new customers in new markets, while ubiquitous connectivity is creating a growing class of more informed and collaborative customers
• Systems & processes enable billions of people to work & live; physical goods to be developed, manufactured, bought & sold; services to be delivered; & movement of everything from people , to money to oil, & water

Green Initiatives:  New environmental responsibilities have awoken the public’s consciousness and shocked business into new approaches.

• New responsibilities including environment, air, energy, water & food shortages are now pervasive and urgent issues. There are visible signs of climate change, $140+ /bbl. petroleum prices, rising energy costs, rising energy demand, environmental compliance and governance mandates
• Mainstreaming of “green” beliefs/activism. Customers, employees, regulators, investors, and other stakeholders look for actions that produce genuine results that improve their environmental and financial results. Companies & governments of all sizes need to look across their operations, prioritize their focus areas / investments, & take action now.

Bigger Than The Industrial Revolution

This is an exciting time to work in the Information Technology industry as we are in the position to truly lead in this transformation to the vision I stated at the beginning of this post.

Future generations will look back at this time in history much like we look back at impact the period of the Industrial Revolution.  Back then, developing economies experienced major transformations in agriculture, manufacturing, and transportation.   Much of this was caused because of the introduction of the steam engine and related technologies.  The Industrial Revolution and the changes that occurred as a result, had a profound effect on socioeconomic and cultural conditions of those developing economies. 

The vision of a Smarter Planet will have a much larger impact than the Industrial Revolution.  It will usher in the Industrialization of Services.   And if you have been reading my posts this year, you know that I believe  that Cloud Computing will be the 'steam engine' that supplies the brain power for us to accelerate towards the Smarter Planet Vision.

Want To Learn More?

Take a look at A Smarter Planet page on ibm.com or check out some videos at Youtube playlist: Building a smarter planet