A couple of weeks ago, Pew/Internet and American Life Project published its Future of the Internet III report, which is a list of technology predictions. A PDF of the report can be downloaded here http://www.pewinternet.org/pdfs/PIP_FutureInternet3.pdfThis is the third canvassing of Internet specialists and analysts by the Pew Internet & American Life Project.
Technology stakeholders and critics were asked in an online survey to assess scenarios about the future social, political, and economic impact of the Internet. Some 578 leading Internet activists, builders, and commentators responded in this survey to scenarios about the effect of the Internet on social, political, and economic life in the year 2020. An additional 618 stakeholders also participated in the study, for a total of 1,196 participants who shared their views.
- The mobile device will be the primary connection tool to the Internet for most people in the world in 2020.
- The transparency of people and organizations will increase, but that will not necessarily yield more personal integrity, social tolerance, or forgiveness.
- Voice recognition and touch user-interfaces with the Internet will be more prevalent and accepted by 2020.
- Those working to enforce intellectual property law and copyright protection will remain in a continuing arms race, with the crackers who will find ways to copy and share content without payment.
- The divisions between personal time and work time and between physical and virtual reality will be further erased for everyone who is connected, and the results will be mixed in their impact on basic social relations.
- Next-generation engineering of the network to improve the current Internet architecture is more likely than an effort to rebuild the architecture from scratch.
Nothing really too earth-shattering based on what we know and discuss today. More predictions about the evolution of mobile communications can be found here, and also make sure to take a look at predictions related to developments in the Internet user interface. Much more information can be found by going to the PEW / INTERNET website: The Future of the Internet III